📊 Weekly Market Recap
S&P 500 return Year-to-date were approximately -0.42%
S&P 500 3 month return were approximately -2.14%
S&P 500 return over the past 5 days were approximately 3.46%
This Week in the Markets – 3 Things to Know
Deal or No Deal?– The market has been reacting hard to headlines around a possible truce involving Iran. When news of a temporary ceasefire dropped, stocks rallied hard and oil pulled back quickly, which gave markets some relief. We actually saw this play out clearly on Wednesday, where markets had a strong green day as investors reacted to the positive headlines. But as the day went on and into the following sessions, that momentum started to fade as uncertainty crept back in. The reality is that this situation still feels fragile, and investors aren’t fully convinced it will hold. Even economists are saying it’s “too soon” to assume the truce will last, which keeps risk in the background. If tensions pick back up, oil prices could spike again just as fast, bringing inflation concerns right back into play. For now, the market is treating this as a short-term positive, but not something you can fully trust yet.
The Sector of Giving Spark– The energy sector has been one of the most reactive parts of the market this week, and it’s almost entirely tied to geopolitical headlines. When conflict fears rise, oil prices jump and energy stocks follow, but any sign of a truce quickly reverses that move. What’s interesting though is that not all energy names are moving the same way power and infrastructure companies like GE Vernova are still strong because electricity demand (especially from AI and data centers) keeps growing regardless of oil prices.
CPI Report This Morning– The CPI report this morning came in hotter than where things had been trending earlier this year, and that definitely caught attention. Inflation is expected to have risen about 1.0% month-over-month for March, with the year-over-year number around 3.3%, which is a noticeable jump from the 2.4% range we saw just a month or two ago. Core inflation is still more stable (around mid-2% range), but headline inflation is what’s driving market reactions right now. The takeaway is pretty simple: inflation isn’t gone, and it might actually be re-accelerating a bit.
Markets on Edge: Truce Talks a and Rapidly Shifting Landscape
Markets this week have been driven largely by geopolitical developments, especially the ongoing attempts to reach a truce in the Middle East involving Iran. Investors have been quick to react to any updates, with even small signs of progress pushing stocks higher and easing pressure on commodities like oil. At the same time, there’s still a strong sense that the situation remains unresolved, which is keeping volatility elevated across multiple sectors. Rather than moving on long-term fundamentals, the market is currently reacting in real time to headlines and shifting expectations. This has created a more fragile environment where sentiment can change quickly depending on new information.
Persistent price pressures are making it harder to confidently predict the next move from the Federal Reserve, especially when it comes to potential interest rate cuts. Investors had been hoping for a clearer path toward easing monetary policy, but recent data suggests that may take longer than expected. This has led to a more cautious tone in the market, particularly in areas that are sensitive to interest rates like technology and growth stocks.
Areas tied to infrastructure, energy, and industrial demand are seeing relatively stronger interest, supported by real-world economic needs and long-term investment themes. Meanwhile, higher-risk and more speculative segments are experiencing increased volatility as investors become more selective. There’s also been a noticeable shift toward shorter-term trading strategies, as market participants look to take advantage of rapid price swings.
S&P 500 SECTOR SNAPSHOT – Past Week
