CEO Message
As I write this both my daughter and my wife have tested positive for Strep. Being independent minded I have broken from the back and got myself a positive case of shingles. Our house is a petri dish. I am in pain, but tax season stops for no man so I trudge on.
Read on for some updates on the market/economy and what’s going on in DC.
-Kevin
Feeling the heat
The S&P 500 lost approximately -1.5% loss this month, and the NASDAQ lost a similar amount. Most things were either flat or down for the month (including oil/energy) so no big news or FOMO.
Some analysts are sounding the alarm with AI (especially this week), warning that the hype might outpace reality. I share their skepticism that stocks like Nvidia have been a bit of a bubble. In either case, I wouldn’t get too emotionally attached to any particular stock and focus instead on the broader economy – which looks ok at the moment.
The Job Market: Strong… Until It’s Not
For a while, the job market has been nothing to comment on. Unemployment has been steady and not worth mentioning. But lately there are some cracks showing. Big names like JP Morgan and UPS have started handing out pink slips, and the hiring spree we had been used to is losing steam. Job openings are still hanging in there, but the vibe has definitely shifted—companies are getting pickier, and that post-pandemic “help wanted” frenzy is fading fast.
Government / Policy Update
We finally had some news on the tax policy front, as the House passed a budget resolution. This was just the first step of many, but it basically outlines the amount of money future legislation could take. The amount ($4.5 trillion) is a rough sketch with no specific details on what will be included in a final bill, but it gives some clues on where we’re headed. Doing drastic things like dramatically changing SALT or tax brackets would be outside the range provided, so the early prediction here is that we mostly get status quo when things are all said and done (ie, similar standard deduction, QBI deduction, similar tax rates, etc)
And since more than a few clients have asked: DOGE and similar efforts may have a big impact on federal workers and others directly affected, but percentage-wise they’re a negligible effect on the overall economy. And since a few clients have asked (rather hopefully): the IRS is not going anywhere. So please still file your taxes.