Message From the CEO
Allegedly February is the shortest month of the year. Don’t believe it for a second. We’re only halfway through and the snowstorms, preschool cancellations and gloating Eagles fans have made this stretch of the calendar feel like an eternity.
Read on for some important updates on the market and taxes.
-Kevin
Mid-February Market Trends and Economic Highlights
Ah, February—the month of love, unpredictable weather, and, of course, the ongoing economic guessing game. If you’ve been watching the markets, you’ve probably noticed they’ve been dancing between optimism and “wait, what now?” as investors process fresh data on jobs, inflation, and interest rates.
So, here’s the scoop: The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady, which wasn’t exactly a shocker. Inflation is still hanging around at a slightly annoying 3.3% (core inflation), and while energy prices have cooled a bit, everyday costs aren’t giving our wallets much of a break. The Fed is basically playing the “let’s wait and see” game—keeping rates up for now but leaving the door open for potential cuts later this year.
Meanwhile, the stock market has been surprisingly relaxed about it all. The S&P 500 (up around 2.46%) has been dancing with record highs, and tech stocks are still riding that AI-fueled wave. On the flip side, the labor market is showing signs of softening—job growth is still positive but slowing and big-name companies (looking at you, JP Morgan) have started trimming their workforce.
On the policy front, if you read our last newsletter I confidently predicted that you could ignore the chatter about impending trade wars with Canada and Mexico – and about 4 hours after I hit ‘send’ on that email they both announced a postponement. We’re currently in the midst of a similar sequence of events with Europe, but I’ll repeat my advice from a wise Scotsman: it’s all sound and fury, signifying nothing.
What is more meaningful is that the wheels of Congress have slowly starting grinding, and we may have some movement on the tax front soon. Whether the bill is split into two or kept as one will be the next development, and could have a big impact on whether or not some things get included (ie, SALT changes). Will keep you posted.
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