Bull & Bear Bulletin- Week of December 19th

📊 Weekly Market Recap

• S&P 500 return Year-to-date were approximately 15.19%
• S&P 500 3 month return were approximately 2.15%
• S&P 500 return over the past month were approximately 3.61%
• S&P 500 return over the past 7 days were approximately -1.94%

Year-End Financial Checklist

Given that we have about two weeks left in the year, and you’re unlikely to be thinking about these things on Christmas morning, we put together this list of to-do’s to make sure you’re not scrambling as we wind down 2025.

Things that NEED to happen by December 31.  

1. Run payroll. Do you own an S-Corp? If you haven’t taken an ‘appropriate’ salary during the year, you need to run enough income through payroll before year-end for it to be captured on your W-2.  Remember that there are bank holidays next week which would delay direct deposit, so make this a priority.
2. Employee 401(k) contributions. If you haven’t maxed out your 401(k) contributions for the year, you have until December 31 to do that. (Note: if you own a business, your employer match deadline isn’t until April; but the employee deferral deadline is 12/31)
3. Spend your FSA dollars.  If you contribute to an FSA account through your employer, you must spend those funds by year-end.  Note that you can submit the reimbursement after you buy something, so if you still have money to spend you just need to make sure the purchase happens this month.  (So head to CVS and stock up on medicine if you really need to exhaust the balance.)
4. RMD withdrawal. If you’re over the age of 72 and haven’t taken your RMD yet from your retirement account, that has to happen by 12/31 to avoid hefty penalties.  Your broker should have told you what the amount is but let me know if you need help with this one.
5. Roth Conversion.  If you’ve been thinking about converting an IRA to a Roth, that needs to happen soon.  (You can contribute to a Roth account until April, but a conversion must be this calendar-year).
6. 529 Contribution. Most states have a 12/31 deadline for contributing to a 529 plan.  If you already have one or want to open one for a child/grandchild, do that now.
7. Charitable Contributions.  If you think you’re going to itemize this year, gifts to charity must be made by year end to qualify.
8. Tax Loss Harvesting.  Since the stock market went up this year, you’re probably sitting on some gains.  If you want to offset those with any clunkers that you’ve been too emotionally attached to get rid of, those sales have to be processed by 12/31.

Things that don’t need to happen just yet (so don’t stress if you were wondering about them).

1. IRA contributions. You have until April 15 to make these for 2024.
2. Employer contributions to 401(k) / SEP / etc.You have until April 15.
3. HSA contributions.You have until April 15, but its generally easier/cleaner to do it via payroll, so don’t put this one off if you can help it.
4. Filing 1099s / W2s for your employees. This is due January 31.

This Week in the Markets- 3 Things to know

1. Inflation Finally Gave the Market Some Air – Inflation data easing was a big psychological win for investors. Growth stocks, especially tech, reacted fast because lower inflation supports higher valuations. It wasn’t a “mission accomplished” moment, but it was enough to reset sentiment in a positive direction. Markets now feel like they’re pricing a smoother path forward rather than bracing for shocks.
2. Anchor the Market – Micron had a big moment after strong guidance reminded the market that AI-driven chip demand is still very real. Investors liked the idea of tighter memory supply and better pricing power sticking around longer than expected. It shows the market is still rewarding companies tied to long-term tech growth, not just reacting to macro headlines.
3. Bond Yields Quietly Changed the Game – The real shift happened in the bond market, even if it didn’t grab headlines. Treasury yields pulling back lowered pressure on equity valuations almost immediately. When yields fall, future earnings look more valuable. It also signaled that bond investors aren’t expecting runaway inflation or emergency-level tightening. Once yields stopped rising, stocks finally had room to push higher.

The Next Chapter Starts to Take Shape

The economy is moving into a phase where balance matters more than brute force. Growth has slowed, inflation continues to cool, and the labor market is easing, which is exactly what policymakers were hoping for. Recent data on wages, productivity, and consumer spending suggests demand is somewhat normalizing rather than collapsing. Markets have picked up on that shift, reacting less emotionally to individual reports and more to the overall trend. Stability, not speed, has become the defining theme.

What makes this moment more interesting is how it overlaps with the future of Fed leadership and policy direction. As inflation pressure fades, the Fed’s role shifts from aggressive tightening to fine-tuning the economy’s glide path. That’s where leadership style starts to matter just as much as interest rates themselves. A new Fed chair could influence how flexible the central bank becomes, how risks are communicated, and how quickly policy adapts to changing data. In a calm-but-fragile economy, messaging can move markets as much as action.

All of these pieces connect as the market transitions from reacting to shocks toward pricing the next cycle. Cooling inflation, softer job growth, and steady consumption create room for long-term thinking instead of short-term fear. Investors are starting to look past the last rate hike and toward what policy looks like in a normalized economy. If leadership changes align with improving data, confidence could build in a more durable way. This is the type of environment where narratives quietly shift, and the market moves before everyone realizes it.

S&P 500 SECTOR SNAPSHOT- Past Week