October is here. The leaves are turning, the nights are cool, and there’s football on TV like 5 nights week. Best time of the year.
Read on for an update on the AI-fueled markets, an update on the shutdown, and our new educational courses.
📊 Weekly Market Recap
- S&P 500 return Year-to-date were approximately 14.18%
- S&P 500 3 month return were approximately 6.95%
- S&P 500 return over the past month were approximately 4.68%
- S&P 500 return over the past 7 days were approximately 1.68%
This Week in the Markets- 3 Things to know
- Momentum VS Reality… Who wins?- Tech’s dominance is starting to show two faces. On one side, valuations across the sector remain stretched after three years of nonstop gains, with multiples sitting well above their historical averages. Rising bond yields are putting pressure on those inflated price tags, forcing investors to ask whether the AI boom is masking deeper cracks. It’s not that a crash feels imminent, but when so much optimism is packed into a few mega-cap names, even a small disappointment could shake confidence and trigger sharp pullbacks. The narrative of endless growth only holds if earnings keep justifying the hype. At the same time, the AI infrastructure story keeps delivering fuel for the fire. CoreWeave’s new deal with Meta highlights how demand for GPU and cloud capacity is expanding far beyond Nvidia, spreading into specialized infrastructure players that are becoming critical to the ecosystem. For CoreWeave, this marks a leap from niche startup to essential supplier, while Meta secures the horsepower to keep scaling its AI models. These AI moves prove that AI isn’t slowing down but it also means investors must decide whether to chase momentum at any price or start questioning how much of the future is already baked into today’s valuations.
- HELP WANTED – On paper, the labor market still looks okay, but unemployment is historically low, layoffs have slowed, and wages continue to support consumer demand. But beneath the surface, cracks are forming. Planned hiring is at the weakest level in over a decade, showing companies are growing cautious about expansion. The shutdown is also delaying key labor data releases, leaving investors with less visibility into the true state of employment. This adds another layer of uncertainty as markets try to gauge whether the slowdown is healthy “cooling” or the start of something more fragile. If the job market weakens just as political dysfunction drags on, confidence could take a hit. That said, for now the consumer engine hasn’t stalled, and that’s keeping markets on a firm footing heading into the last quarter of the year.
- Records Meet Regulation – A Market at Crossroads
Markets pushed to record highs this week, even as weaker job growth and softer economic signals hinted at potential cracks beneath the surface. Investors seem convinced the Fed will stay on its easing path and that the economy is cooling just enough without tipping over the classic “Goldilocks” setup. But when stocks rally in the face of shaky fundamentals, it raises the question of whether momentum is doing more heavy lifting than actual data. Traders are left wondering if we’re climbing a wall of worry or simply ignoring the warning signs that usually anchor valuations. Layered on top of this optimism is a potential regulatory shakeup: the SEC’s proposal to end quarterly earnings reports. If markets are already running hot while economic signals cool, taking away one of the most consistent check-ins on company performance could amplify the disconnect. Less frequent updates might give executives more room to think long-term, but it could also mean longer stretches where investors are trading on sentiment rather than hard numbers. In a market already prone to momentum swings, reduced transparency could turn rallies like this into bigger roller coaster where optimism runs wild until reality finally catches up.
All Quiet In Washington
Shutdowns always grab headlines, but the truth is they rarely change the long-term story for markets. This one’s no different: government offices might be dark, agencies are running on fumes, and political drama is in full swing, yet stocks keep pushing higher. The S&P and NASDAQ are still hanging around record levels, and investors seem to be brushing off D.C. entirely. Wall Street has seen this show before, and the lesson is clear: shutdowns pass, but profits, earnings, and liquidity drive the real trend.
This is where things get interesting, because the shutdown overlaps with a labor market that’s cooling but not collapsing. Companies are pulling back on hiring, job openings are slipping, and wage growth is easing. But here’s the catch if Washington drags this fight out into late Q4, and the slowdown in hiring turns into something sharper, it could spook both businesses and consumers. Confidence is almost as fragile from 2020 to now, and a dip in spending during the holiday season would land hard.
That’s why the Fed’s role matters so much right now. Investors are betting on at least one rate cut before the year is out, and a move like that could be rocket fuel for stocks. Lower borrowing costs would support both businesses and consumers, boost investor risk appetite, and give markets a clear signal that the Fed’s easing cycle has begun. On the flip side, if the Fed decides to hold off worried that inflation hasn’t cooled enough, the market could lose steam at the exact moment political noise and labor cracks are creating headwinds. And don’t forget – the shutdown itself means some of the Fed’s usual data inputs are delayed, which only adds to the uncertainty.
So here’s the setup heading into Q4: stocks are strong, tech is for sure carrying the rally, and the hope of a Fed cut is hanging in the air. At the same time, political dysfunction, a slower job market, and sticky inflation are lurking in the background.
It’s less about one clean story and more about how these moving puzzle pieces fit together. If the Fed cuts, markets could sprint into the year-end. If they don’t, volatility might steal the spotlight. Either way, Q4 looks like it’s going to be a test of patience, positioning, and who can keep their cool in a noisy market.
And one last reminder – if you filed an extension on your taxes in April, yes you still need to file by October 15, even if there’s no one in the building. Sorry.
Educational Courses Now Available
As I mentioned last week, I’m excited to announce our new educational course offerings. Over the past few years, I’ve noticed the same questions and topics coming up in my client conversations. To make it easier for you to access these answers on your own schedule, I’ve started building a library of short, practical educational courses.
Our first set of courses covers starting a business and buying your first rental property. Each course consists of videos and texts and should hopefully help you feel more knowledgeable and comfortable.
If you’re interested, feel free to check them out at our affiliate company, Blue Maple Academy.
S&P 500 SECTOR SNAPSHOT- Past Month
